The Covid-19 pandemic - a letter to a friend
Jan-2024
Dear **
A lot to unpack there. Our immune systems are indeed remarkable. The problem is that 'immunity' against Covid-19, however it is gained, is never absolute and does wane. I think a lot of people are suffering from binary thinking throughout this pandemic. I hadn't realised how much of a problem this was until recently. Glad that you got through the infection okay.
Vaccination offers a way to train our immune systems to recognise the virus, without the risk of the actual infection.
I'm against vaccination passports, as they create a false impression that those who are vaccinated are somehow safe. Vaccination reduces, but does not stop the possibility of catching or passing on the virus to others. Vaccination significantly reduces the likelihood of catching the virus (because it trains our immune system) and reduces the likelihood of serious infection or death. But does not eliminate it.
Here's a video of the CEO of Moderna, Stephane Bancel, saying exactly that in Nov-2020. He said masks etc. are still needed. Yet politicians and the media repeatedly lied about it. Remember "vax and relax"?
the vaccine is not a silver bullet
The UK strategy seemed to imagine that vaccines were 100% successful (they aren't) and that kids don't catch or pass on the virus (they do). They help as part of the array of techniques we can do to reduce the damage the virus has wreaked. But on their own vaccines will not be able to stop the virus. Neither will what you call "natural immunity". Both wane, neither is perfect. Having the vaccine on top of a previous infection will increase your immune system's ability to fight off the virus.
I am especially worried about schools. We have almost no mitigation measures in place. It is a shocking dereliction of duty that makes me feel that the government actually wants to infect and kill as many people as possible. 'freedom' day, the same. It is a preventable disease. We know how to prevent it, especially how to limit its spread. Yet we have often done the opposite. It is criminal.
The current "omicron is mild" narrative reminds me of all the previous "only elderly people with existing conditions get it", "masks are dangerous", "masks don't work", "lockdowns do more damage than the virus", "it will become milder" etc. None of these has any basis in fact, but the media and government have trotted out platitudes like these from the start. We know that age is a significant risk factor - you are around 100 more likely to be killed age 60 than at 10, other things being equal. We know that vaccination (especially recent vaccination) reduces risk.
There is lots of evidence that Omicron is more contagious. There is some evidence that it is slightly less likely to kill you than Delta, though, people don't mention this; more likely to kill you than the original strain. The increased infectiousness combined with the pitiful lack of other measures is why 335 people died today. We have one of the highest death rates in the World. It is easy to see why. I have seen anecdotal evidence that Omicron tends to multiply in the upper airways, which make it more contagious (more breathing it over other people) but less deadly. However, we have no idea what the long term damage is. Covid is a blood disease, it just happens to spread through the respiratory tract. It is nothing like flu or a cold. It can leave serious damage to organs, including the brain, through micro clots. I suspect we are currently causing a chronic tsunami of illness that will leave many people impaired for the rest of their lives. I blocked a now ex friend because he said that I don't understand, we are all going to get it, omicron is mild - he is anti vax.
I lost another friend who, when the difference in death rate between Japan and UK was pointed out said "that's because they use ivermectin". They don't. Nobody has licensed its use. The two papers on it have been withdrawn and the authors (the same in both cases) exposed as frauds. We had the same thing with smoking and global warning of course. There will always be bad scientists. But for people to believe this idiocy is disturbing. That is why I called it Trumpian.
It was clear to me from very early on that the virus was probably airborne. I've been proven correct. I watched a rather brilliant TED talk by Lydia Bourouiba in Mar 2020. I've always thought that we should take the precautionary approach. It is unforgivable that our hospitals are still not providing staff with adequate masks. I started making masks before the first lockdown. My last shop visits were to buy cotton and elastic. But those masks have a limited ability to block aerosols. Surgical masks are around 35% effective. When the Delta wave started I switched to N95 / FFP2 masks, I have some FFP3s and I am investigating more permanent P100 elastomeric masks. I'd like to be able to travel on public transport again one day, but don't want to be surrounded by infected people.
How diseases and epidemics move through a breath of air
I stopped shopping in shops early on in the pandemic. Before any mask mandate came in I found it too dangerous. I can't say I miss it. I always hated shopping. I've had to have a tooth extracted at the dentists and I've had to have some hospital visits. I always book the first appointment in the day, so the air is not yet contaminated. I find it disturbing that people still don't understand the mechanisms by which this virus spreads. I see people using visors but no mask - which have an efficacy of perhaps 2%. They are worse than useless as the give a false sense of security.
Masks probably don't work the way you think they do. I was surprised at this, but it is fascinating how they work :
The Astounding Physics of N95 Masks
I've seen a paper by an Irish architect showing that 60% of infections in Ireland are caught in 10% of the buildings. Clean air is really significant. I built my own CO2 monitor in Dec 2020. It is interesting how ventilation changes the CO2 concentration : CO2 can (with caveats) be used as a proxy measure of the amount of exhaled air in the room and therefore the potential risk of infection. Ventilation needs to be monitored to be effective. Holding the door open a bit, or opening a window a bit may or may not be enough. It depends on the wind speed, what entry / exit is present, the size of the room, the number of people, what they are doing (eating / talking / singing and aerobic exercise are all high risk).
To augment good ventilation, or where it is not possible, air filters can be used. These circulate the air (which can give misleading CO2 figures) through filters designed to remove small particles. These can have a dramatic effect or air quality.
Look up "Corsi Rosenthal" boxes for info on home made fitler systems.
The 2m "social distancing" thing was clearly only a rough approximation, took no account of aerosol spread and actually has no basis in any science - though nearer to an infected plume of breath is clearly lots riskier. The 2m comes from a medieval 6 foot "plague stick" and has been trotted out as dogma ever since. Yet people thought they were magically safe 2.1m away. So much magical thinking going on.
There is a really good paper on the history of droplet dogma and why we have failed to recognise that this virus is airborne.
A twitter thread on the same here :
And an article in Wired on it :
The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill
Then there is the virus itself. I read a book on the evolutionary pressure on viruses in the 1980s. A 'successful' virus is one that can reproduce itself more. This is why we have seen successive variants, each more infectious. There is no evolutionary pressure on the virus to become less dangerous. The "it will become like flu / cold" is simply wishful thinking. It is Hopium. But many people trot this out because they want it to be true. We all want it to end. But the virus doesn't care what we think. The only case where a virus becomes limited is where it kills its hosts before it can be passed on. Ebola is like this, but it is very unusual. Smallpox, Polio, Measles have been endemic for centuries, but they have not become less damaging. There is no mechanism to enforce that. There is a mechanism to cause an increase in contagiousness.
Then there is the word 'endemic'. I suspect most people have as little idea about this as they have about exponentials. I found this thread very helpful.
I would urge you to get vaccinated. It will teach your immune system how to fight off infection, or will refresh its memory. The mRNA vaccines are incredible interesting technology. I share many people's concern about big pharma - but that is just down to the capitalist system. I want people to stop burning oil, but if I need an ambulance, I will get in a petrol driven one. That is how I see vaccines. It is more binary thinking to believe that big pharma (bad) therefore vaccines (bad). I wish more people had a better grasp of epistemology. Most seem to have very poor reasoning skills.
There is a good background on one of the early developers of the technology here :
How mRNA went from a scientific backwater to a pandemic crusher
I think mRNA will be a significant source of new medicine of all kinds in the future. When Jonas Salk invented the Polio vaccine he gave it away, patent free, so its uptake would be maximised. We should do the same now. Polio was a mild illness in most people who caught it, and only killed a small proportion - less than Covid. But we eradicated it. We should do the same with Covid. We can't do it just with vaccines, but they are an important part of the weaponry at our disposal.
Stay safe. Wear a good mask (FFP2 or better), stay away from crowded places. Don't get anywhere near the plume from other people's mouths - including being downwind. Avoid shared air.
On the subject of exponentials - they are the reason I am a socialist and why I am worried (very) about the state of the planet. It is clear that you cannot have unconstrained growth on a finite planet. It is mathematically impossible. It will inevitably led to an exhaustion of all our resources. I wish more people understood that.
I hope you find the above interesting and useful. And I hope you keep safe and well.
Regards
Dave